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1\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u7528Johanse\u68c0\u9a8c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u5317\u4eac\u548c\u91cd\u5e86\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u4e4b\u524d\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb;\u800c\u5929\u6d25\u5e02\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u5e02\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u95f4\u81f3\u5c11\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u957f\u671f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5747\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2.\u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5bf9\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(1)\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7814\u7a76\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\u5730\u533a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5f39\u6027\u7cfb\u6570\u5bcc\u6709\u5f39\u6027\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6709\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u8bf4\u660e\u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5fc5\u987b\u4e0e\u76f8\u5173\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5339\u914d\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8fd8\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u8db3\u90fd\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u5730\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n<p>(2)\u7814\u7a76\u56db\u5927\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u3002\u4ece\u56fe\u4e00\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a\u7b2c1\u9636\u6bb5 \uff0c \u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5bf9\u5730\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6ce2\u52a8\u6bd4\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027;\u7b2c2\u9636\u6bb5 \uff0c \u56db\u5927\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5f39\u6027\u5927\u5e45\u6536\u7a84 \uff0c\u53d1\u5c55 \u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u7b2c3\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c \u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u4e1a\u5168\u9762\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5916\u8d44\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u5f39\u6027\u5448\u5206\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>3.\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u5f71\u54cd\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u6709\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u3001\u533a\u57df\u5c45\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3001\u571f\u5730\u4ef7\u683c\u3001\u623f\u8d37\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4ece\u5b8f\u89c2\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4ee3\u8868\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u529b\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u5c31\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u548c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u4ee5\u5317\u4eac\u5e02\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u53d8\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\uff0c \u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u5f62\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u91cf\u6d4b\u65b9\u7a0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>log bj inv=c(1) +cv1*log bj gdp+cv2*log bj loan+cv3*log bj price+<\/p>\n<p>cv4*pland bj+w (3)<\/p>\n<p>\u72b6\u6001\u65b9\u7a0b\uff1acv1 =cv1 (-1)<\/p>\n<p>cv2 =cv2 (-1)<\/p>\n<p>cv3 =cv3 (-1)<\/p>\n<p>cv4 =cv4 (-1) (4)<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5f0f\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0ccv1\u3001cv2\u3001cv3\u3001cv4\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u5206\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u3001\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u6765\u6e90\u4e2d\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u9500\u552e\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u571f\u5730\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\u7684\u654f\u611f\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503c\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5317\u4eac\u5e02\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6d88\u8d39\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u53d8\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u5f62\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b \uff1a<\/p>\n<p>\u91cf\u6d4b\u65b9\u7a0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>log bj sale=c(1) +kv1*log bj gdp+kv2*log bj income+kv3*log bj price+v (5)<\/p>\n<p>\u72b6\u6001\u65b9\u7a0b\uff1akv1 =kv1 (-1)<\/p>\n<p>kv2 =kv2 (-1)<\/p>\n<p>kv3 =kv3 (-1) (6)<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5f0f\u5b50\u4e2dkv1\u3001kv2\u3001kv3\u7684\u542b\u7fa9\u662f\u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u3001\u57ce\u9547\u5c45\u6c11\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u6536\u5165\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u9500\u552e\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u654f\u611f\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503c\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u800c\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>(1)\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u521a\u521a\u8d77\u6b65\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u90fd\u4e0d\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e24\u65b9\u4e92\u76f8\u5f71\u54cd\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u5f3a\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>(2)\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u8fbe\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>\u4e8c\u3001\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u8bba\u6587\u603b\u7ed3<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>\u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4f34\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u7269\u4ef7\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7b49\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5173\u7cfb\u4e5f\u5728\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5747\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5bf9\u6211\u56fd\u56db\u5927\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5317\u4eac\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u7b49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u8fbe\u5730\u533a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f53\u5730\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5145\u5206\u53d1\u6325\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5176\u5f0a\u75c5\u5f00\u59cb\u51f8\u663e\uff0c\u8981\u60f3\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5229\u7528\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6765\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u53d1\u5c55\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u548c\u6316\u6398\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u91cd\u5e86\u548c\u5929\u6d25\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u57ce\u5e02\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u62c9\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\u4ecd\u7136\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u4f46\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u5e26\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u4f34\u968f\u6211\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5730\u4ea7\u3002\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u5c06\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f31\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5404\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u57fa\u672c\u63a5\u8fd1 \u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2008\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2008\" class=\"wp-image-2008 size-full\" title=\"(\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u8bba\u6587)\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u63a2\u8ba8\" src=\"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/9731.jpg\" alt=\"(\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u8bba\u6587)\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u63a2\u8ba8\" width=\"600\" height=\"374\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2008\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">(\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u8bba\u6587)\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u63a2\u8ba8<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e73\u8861\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u73b0\u5b9e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3001\u6bd4\u8f83\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c2000\u2014\u20142005\u5e74\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u4ef7\u683c\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u6765\u770b\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u662f\u534f\u8c03\u53d1\u5c55\u7684;<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46 2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c 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1997\u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc5\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\u5e76\u56de\u5f52\u5230\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u76f8\u5747\u8861\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d8b\u52bf\u5728\u6211\u56fd\u6709\u4e9b\u57ce\u5e02\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u663e\u73b0 \uff0c \u653f\u5e9c\u5fc5\u987b\u63d0\u65e9\u505a\u597d\u5e94\u5bf9\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>[1]\u6c88\u60a6\uff0c\u5218\u6d2a\u7389.\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff1a1995\u20142002\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd14\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u7814\u7a76[J].\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\uff0c2004\uff0c(6).<\/p>\n<p>[2]\u97e9\u51ac\u6885\uff0c\u5218\u5170\u5a1f\uff0c\u66f9\u5764.\u57fa\u4e8e\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce1\u6cab\u95ee\u9898\u7814\u7a76[J].\u8d22\u7ecf\u7814\u7a76\uff0c2008\uff0c34(1).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5bfc\u8bfb\uff1a3000\u5b57\u7b26\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u8bba\u6587\u8303\u6587\u8bb2\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5173\u7cfb\u63a2\u8ba8\u3002\u4ece\u6587\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u7531\u6b64\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u8bba\u6587\u7684\u7cbe\u9ad3\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e3a\u6211\u56fd\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e8b\u4e1a\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5f88\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u63a2\u8ba8\u548c\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u8fd9\u7bc7\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u8bba\u6587\u66f4\u52a0\u663e\u5f97\u91cd\u8981\u3002 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[&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2008,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[73,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-jingji","category-lw"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2005"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2005"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2005\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4622,"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2005\/revisions\/4622"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2008"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.668lw.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}