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\u6700\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u7528Johanse\u68c0\u9a8c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u5317\u4eac\u548c\u91cd\u5e86\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u4e4b\u524d\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb;\u800c\u5929\u6d25\u5e02\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u5e02\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u95f4\u81f3\u5c11\u5b58\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u534f\u6574\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53d8\u91cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u5177\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u957f\u671f\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5747\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n 2.\u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5bf9\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n (1)\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7814\u7a76\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\u5730\u533a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5f39\u6027\u7cfb\u6570\u5bcc\u6709\u5f39\u6027\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6709\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u8bf4\u660e\u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5fc5\u987b\u4e0e\u76f8\u5173\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5339\u914d\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u8fc7\u5ea6\u8fd8\u662f\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u8db3\u90fd\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u5730\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n (2)\u7814\u7a76\u56db\u5927\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u3002\u4ece\u56fe\u4e00\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a\u7b2c1\u9636\u6bb5 \uff0c \u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5bf9\u5730\u65b9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6ce2\u52a8\u6bd4\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027;\u7b2c2\u9636\u6bb5 \uff0c \u56db\u5927\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5f39\u6027\u5927\u5e45\u6536\u7a84 \uff0c\u53d1\u5c55 \u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n \u5728\u7b2c3\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c \u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u91d1\u878d\u4e1a\u5168\u9762\u5f00\u653e\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5916\u8d44\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa\u5f39\u6027\u5448\u5206\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n 3.\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u957f\u671f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n \u4ece\u5fae\u89c2\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u5f71\u54cd\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u5e02\u573a\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u6709\uff1a\u4ef7\u683c\u3001\u533a\u57df\u5c45\u6c11\u6536\u5165\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3001\u571f\u5730\u4ef7\u683c\u3001\u623f\u8d37\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4ece\u5b8f\u89c2\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4ee3\u8868\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u529b\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u5c31\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u91cf\u548c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u4ee5\u5317\u4eac\u5e02\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u53d8\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\uff0c \u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u5f62\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n \u91cf\u6d4b\u65b9\u7a0b\uff1a<\/p>\n log bj inv=c(1) +cv1*log bj gdp+cv2*log bj loan+cv3*log bj price+<\/p>\n cv4*pland bj+w (3)<\/p>\n \u72b6\u6001\u65b9\u7a0b\uff1acv1 =cv1 (-1)<\/p>\n cv2 =cv2 (-1)<\/p>\n cv3 =cv3 (-1)<\/p>\n cv4 =cv4 (-1) (4)<\/p>\n \u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5f0f\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0ccv1\u3001cv2\u3001cv3\u3001cv4\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u5206\u522b\u662f\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u3001\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u6765\u6e90\u4e2d\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u9500\u552e\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u571f\u5730\u4ea4\u6613\u4ef7\u683c\u6307\u6570\u7684\u654f\u611f\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503c\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u6539\u53d8\u3002<\/p>\n \u5317\u4eac\u5e02\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6d88\u8d39\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u53d8\u53c2\u6570\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u72b6\u6001\u7a7a\u95f4\u5f62\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b \uff1a<\/p>\n \u91cf\u6d4b\u65b9\u7a0b\uff1a<\/p>\n log bj sale=c(1) +kv1*log bj gdp+kv2*log bj income+kv3*log bj price+v (5)<\/p>\n \u72b6\u6001\u65b9\u7a0b\uff1akv1 =kv1 (-1)<\/p>\n kv2 =kv2 (-1)<\/p>\n kv3 =kv3 (-1) (6)<\/p>\n \u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5f0f\u5b50\u4e2dkv1\u3001kv2\u3001kv3\u7684\u542b\u7fa9\u662f\u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6d88\u8d39\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\u3001\u57ce\u9547\u5c45\u6c11\u53ef\u652f\u914d\u6536\u5165\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u9500\u552e\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u654f\u611f\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503c\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u800c\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a<\/p>\n (1)\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u521a\u521a\u8d77\u6b65\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7531\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u90fd\u4e0d\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e24\u65b9\u4e92\u76f8\u5f71\u54cd\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u5f3a\u70c8\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n (2)\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u8fbe\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u533a\u57df\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4f34\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u7269\u4ef7\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7b49\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5173\u7cfb\u4e5f\u5728\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5747\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n \u4e0a\u8ff0\u5bf9\u6211\u56fd\u56db\u5927\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5317\u4eac\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u7b49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u8fbe\u5730\u533a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f53\u5730\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5145\u5206\u53d1\u6325\uff0c\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7ecf\u8fc7\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5176\u5f0a\u75c5\u5f00\u59cb\u51f8\u663e\uff0c\u8981\u60f3\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5229\u7528\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6765\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6df1\u5165\u53d1\u5c55\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u548c\u6316\u6398\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6d88\u8d39\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n \u800c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u91cd\u5e86\u548c\u5929\u6d25\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u57ce\u5e02\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u62c9\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\u4ecd\u7136\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u4f46\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6d88\u8d39\u7684\u5e26\u52a8\u4f5c\u7528\u4e5f\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5bf9\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c\u4f34\u968f\u6211\u56fd\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5bf9\u5730\u4ea7\u3002\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u5c06\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5f31\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5404\u5730\u533a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5bf9\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4e1a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u57fa\u672c\u63a5\u8fd1 \u3002<\/p>\n <\/p>\n (\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u8bba\u6587)\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e0e\u533a\u57df\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u63a2\u8ba8<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n \u4ece\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e73\u8861\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u73b0\u5b9e\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3001\u6bd4\u8f83\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c2000\u2014\u20142005\u5e74\u8fd9\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u4ef7\u683c\u603b\u4f53\u4e0a\u6765\u770b\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u662f\u534f\u8c03\u53d1\u5c55\u7684;<\/p>\n \u4f46 2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c \u5728\u76f8\u5bf9\u53d1\u8fbe\u7684\u4e0a\u6d77\u7b49\u5730\u533a\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u589e\u957f\u8fc7\u5feb\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c2008\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u56db\u4e2a\u76f4\u8f96\u5e02\u666e\u904d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u6bd4\u8f83\u663e\u8457\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\u4e5f\u5145\u5206\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u6211\u56fd\u5404\u57ce\u5e02\u5546\u54c1\u623f\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u539f\u6709\u7684\u5747\u8861\u5173\u7cfb\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u53d8\u5316 \uff0c \u5fc5\u987b\u5f15\u8d77\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u8db3\u591f\u91cd\u89c6\u3002<\/p>\n 2010\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5904\u4e8e\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u9ad8\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u662f\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5f53\u4e0b\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6536\u5230\u4e86\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7092\u4f5c\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u884c\u4e1a\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u89d2\u5ea6\u7684\u504f\u79bb\u3002<\/p>\n 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